The 20th domestic high concentration phosphate compound fertilizer production and marketing fair and 2019 China phosphate compound fertilizer industry exhibition opened in Qingdao, east China's shandong province, Nov. 15, 2019. As the focus of attention in the current industry, phosphate compound fertilizer conference held not only in the general direction for the development of China's phosphate compound fertilizer industry "guidance", but also for a long time in the depressed state of the fertilizer market "rally".
Phosphate compound fertilizer conference is an important time node of winter storage market, which is usually regarded as the signal of winter storage start. At present, the partial area compound fertilizer winter storage market really started earlier, but also "hastily", the enterprise quotation is less and less, dealers are more and more cautious, was forced to deadlock. In view of the "particularity" of this winter compound fertilizer market, phosphate compound fertilizer conference was "high hopes", combined with the current positive and negative factors, phosphate compound fertilizer conference to "stabilize the price" is more likely.
First, positive factors.
First, the remaining demand space is large. Winter storage of compound fertilizers is the most important market stage in each year. It not only involves a wide range of products, but also has a large overall storage volume, especially in northeast, north China and northwest China. Compound fertilizer market has not been mentioned, winter started in the early, but still in a relatively stalemate, the progress is slow, lower overall pick quantity is limited, most downstream hesitate not at present prices, but prices, phosphate &compound fertilizer meeting once make clear guidance, so the rest of the demand will soon release;
Second, the time to collect goods is approaching. The storage is intended to operate in advance, and it takes a long time from taking delivery to selling. The risks are self-evident. In the middle of November, the Chinese New Year is only two months away. Once the best time to pick up the goods is missed, the significance of light storage will basically disappear.
Third, winter supply is limited. In winter, the air temperature is low, and the heating links around the air quality caused a lot of pressure, environmental protection situation is severe. Since the elimination of "one-size-all", the phenomenon of large-scale closure is indeed rare, but the local stage pressure still exists, coupled with the road snow and ice, transportation is also a great test, therefore, the compound fertilizer market is still good in terms of demand and supply.
Secondly, the negative factors.
First, the continuation of insufficient cost support. Demand and supply may support prices, but raw material costs are key. The main reason for the declining price of compound fertilizer is the continuous weakness of the raw material market. Recently, the price of urea is weak and volatile. Both domestic demand and the promotion of printing standard have failed to play a substantial role in the price rebound.
Second, the low tone has been hammered out. Since the spring market up to now, at the beginning of each quarter, some enterprises will launch one or two burst products for advance collection, and the price is frequently hit a new low, although it is only a stage of collection, but misled the downstream for low psychological expectations, once the new price rises, it will receive the voice of resistance. This winter market is the same, the early low advance in a certain extent hindered the market.
Third, local markets are chaotic. In addition to the contradiction between supply and demand, the unhealthy development of the market is also one of its negative factors. Current compound fertilizer market is getting worse, more and more disorderly, in northeast China as an example, the "price war" is a typical bad competition in the market, to market share, enterprises at the expense of the fertilizer quality, compression cost, with the irrational price level for the downstream procurement interest, therefore, do not underestimate the negative factors of compound fertilizer market.
To sum up, the success of the phosphate compound fertilizer conference can be regarded as the key factor to promote the current winter storage market. While stabilizing the current compound fertilizer market, it will also provide the direction for future price trend and market development. Combined with the expectation of future raw materials and supply and demand, the sound of maintaining stable compound fertilizer price may be stronger.